How Will Tariffs Impact The 2019 Holiday Shopping Season?

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• About Tariffs
• Recent U.S. Tariff Threats
• The Upcoming 2019 Holiday Retail Season

Around the world, millions of people wonder what, if any, impact new tariffs in the United States will have on the 2019 holiday season. This question also concerns us at The Shops@Rockvale. Since we carry a wide array of in-demand consumer goods, we pay close attention to this issue! Visit us online at www.shoprockvale.com to discover a great roster of retail outlets and popular eateries!

You’ll find our retail center in Lancaster, Pennsylvania conveniently located at 35 South Willowdale Drive at the intersection of Route 30 (Lincoln Highway), Rockvale Drive, and Hartman Bridge Road.

About Tariffs

Essentially, a tariff serves as an added fee placed on specified goods imported from individual nations. It requires an exporter overseas to pay money to the United States government to send their products across our border. Predicting the impact of a specific tariff sometimes proves difficult because the results depend upon the availability of alternative suppliers.

For example, if the USA imposes a tariff on consumer widgets manufactured by one nation, but several other countries continue to export widgets to the United States, the overall impact in the USA may prove minimal. Tariffs apply on a country by country basis.

On the other hand, a U.S. tariff imposed on an item with limited global availability may result in higher sales prices for U.S. consumers. If only a single nation manufactures a widget and the United States imposes a widget tariff on that country, Americans will likely discover the cost of buying widgets in the USA has risen sharply. The tariff effectively limits the available supply. Higher prices could result during the holiday season in this situation.

Recent U.S. Tariff Threats

The Trump Administration has threatened several other nations with tariffs recently. Earlier this year, the President imposed sweeping tariffs on a number of consumer goods imported from China. However, following new trade negotiations, the Trump Administration reportedly suspended implementing some of those tariffs.

Last month, the President indicated he would authorize harsh tariffs on Mexico, but this threat also reached a negotiated conclusion. This week, the Administration proposed adding tariffs on a number of imported food items from the European Union, setting off concerns that the price of olive oil may rise steeply soon.

Predicting the impact of tariffs on the 2019 holiday shopping season in Pennsylvania proves challenging for a number of reasons. First, since tariffs impact specific countries (not all imported items), the effect of a tariff varies based upon the available alternative supply sources. Second, tariffs often serve as negotiating tools in trade discussions.

One government may threaten to impose tariffs in order to gain concessions from another, without actually following through on the threat. Third, the impact of a tariff may not produce direct effects.

For instance, a tariff on imported raw materials might burden domestic manufacturers of some products significantly but leave others relatively unaffected due to the availability of substitute components. Fourth, tariffs sometimes result in “trade wars” in which nations impose punitive retaliatory tariffs on one another’s industries. Predicting causes and effects in these cases proves tricky indeed.

The Upcoming 2019 Holiday Retail Season

How should you and stores like OshKosh B’gosh prepare for the upcoming retail season? While it makes sense to follow economic news closely, it also appears tariffs frequently don’t materialize. We recommend not worrying about this issue (unless and until a tariff produces demonstrable price fluctuations in goods you purchase regularly). Today, it proves virtually impossible to predict the price impacts (if any) of threatened tariffs on consumer goods accurately.